News

After a dramatic 2Q and an explosive 3Q, we could expect a 4Q of relative stasis before a new acceleration in 2021. Considering what the markets have already done, the lack of particularly positive surprises for 4Q could weigh negatively.

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We have often heard of TINA (there is no alternative) and FOMO (fear of missing out) to explain, in a simplistic
way, the equity rally despite everything. We would now add another acronym, ROMO (reality of missing out):
few of us were expecting the seemingly counterintuitive rebound of the last four months and even fewer
investors participated in it.

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The strong rebound of the last two months has been classified as the most "hated" in history. Objectively, we
did not expect such a rapid return of these conditions and therefore it should come as no surprise that
optimism on the markets has returned.

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After the apocalyptic month of March, in which the stocks entered a bear market faster than ever seen in history, they turned around just as fast. Especially the American markets, with the S&P500 returning to -9%YTD and the NASDAQ 100 even reaching +6% YTD.

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“Surreal” is the best word to describe the situation that we've been experiencing for almost two months.Deep anxiety and uncertainty about the future are accompanying us.

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The global spread of Covid-19 has caused panic on the markets which in just a short time has set off a series of historical losses. The only beneficiaries of this situation have been quality government bonds and gold, which benefited by the exogenous shock.

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Santa Claus did not put a lump of coal in our stockings last year, quite the reverse. Unlike 2018, the stock markets ended a very positive year on a high note and, unusually, this coincided with a strong bond market as well.

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The progress of the market in an already very positive 2019 also continued in the month of November, confirming the tradition of the so-called "Christmas rally."

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Against all our expectations, October turned out to be one of the best months for the equity segment in the apparently unpredictable - but in the end very positive - 2019.

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When it seemed that the market had gained new strength and was about to breach the value highs for the year, some bad news from the macro data harmed the mood.

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